AMD's New 2026 Price Target Implies a Double — If AI Spending Doesn't Hit a Wall First

AMD's New 2026 Price Target Implies a Double — If AI Spending Doesn't Hit a Wall First

DA Davidson analyst Gil Moreland didn't tweak his AMD forecast on Friday. He rebuilt it. The new 2026 price target reflects a near-doubling from current levels, anchored to a single bet: that AMD's data center business will sustain roughly 50% revenue growth as hyperscalers keep buying AI chips by the pallet.

The bull case isn't crazy. AMD's MI300X accelerators — the chips that compete directly with Nvidia's H100s for training and running AI models — are already shipping to Microsoft, Meta, and others at scale. While Nvidia grabs the magazine covers, AMD has been quietly taking share in the market for inference workloads, where cost-per-query matters more than raw benchmark scores. Moreland is pricing that momentum into a 2026 story, not a 2024 one.

The bear case is simple: AMD trades around 40x forward earnings, which leaves no room for a miss. If enterprise AI budgets get trimmed, if shipments slip a quarter, or if Nvidia launches next-gen hardware that widens the performance gap, that multiple compresses fast. The stock's consumer graphics division — still soft from the gaming downcycle — provides no cushion. One bad data center quarter and this target becomes a cautionary tweet.

Gobble's Take: AMD is the trade for investors who think Nvidia is too crowded — but at 40x earnings, you're paying for perfection in a market that rarely delivers it.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Ardelyx Dropped 20% With No Bad News — DCF Models Say Fair Value Is Twice the Current Price

Ardelyx makes tenapanor, a drug for irritable bowel syndrome and a rare kidney condition called hyperphosphatemia — two areas Big Pharma largely ignored for decades. Its branded IBS pill, Ibsrela, crossed 100,000 patients in its first year on the market, with sales growth running triple digits quarter over quarter. Then, with no negative clinical data and no regulatory setback, the stock fell roughly 20% in a matter of days on pure momentum selling.

That kind of disconnect is what DCF — discounted cash flow — models are built to catch. Analysts running the numbers on Ardelyx's projected revenue peg fair value somewhere between $12 and $15 per share. The stock is currently trading under $6. The math behind that gap: FDA approval of tenapanor for dialysis patients has opened a potential path to Medicare reimbursement for as many as 8 million eligible users, and the company's patent protection on the drug runs to 2035, giving competitors a long wall to climb.

The risk is real. Biotech stocks at this size are binary by nature — one competitor approval or one coverage denial can reset expectations overnight. But the selloff here wasn't driven by either. It was driven by traders rotating out of small-cap biotech during a volatile stretch, and that kind of selling creates the kind of entry point that value-oriented traders spend months waiting for.

Gobble's Take: A 20% dip on zero bad news, a patent moat to 2035, and a DCF gap you could park a truck in — the market is handing you homework, not a warning.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Barchart's Market Performance Page Tracks Which Sectors Are Leading — And Which Are Lagging

The S&P 500 gets the headlines, but Barchart's Stock Market & Sector Performance page gives traders a faster read on what's actually moving. A one-year chart at the top of the page plots the S&P 500 against all 11 S&P sectors, with percent comparisons shown side by side. Checkboxes let you show or hide individual sectors on the fly.

The real tool is the heatmap. It ranks the percentage of stocks in each sector trading above their 20, 50, 100, 150, and 200-day moving averages. Green marks the highest percentages; red marks the lowest. Every sector — plus the S&P 500 Index itself — gets ranked, so relative strength and weakness are visible at a glance across five different timeframes.

Logged-in Barchart members can save their custom page setup as a default, keeping their preferred sector view ready each session.

Gobble's Take: Five moving average windows across every S&P sector in one heatmap is the kind of breadth snapshot most traders waste hours trying to build themselves — bookmark this page.

Source: Barchart.com

The S&P 500 Hits 7,279 — Up 10% in a Month and at All-Time Highs

The S&P 500 rose to 7,279 points on May 6, 2026, gaining 0.28% from the previous session. That puts the index at a record level — the all-time high logged in the source data is 7,273.26, also from May 2026. The index has now climbed 10.01% over the past month and is up 29.26% compared to the same time last year.

The near-term catalyst is geopolitical. US stock futures advanced Wednesday after Washington declared an end to offensive operations against Iran and reaffirmed a ceasefire, stoking optimism that a broader deal with Tehran could be within reach. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively. Earnings added fuel: Advanced Micro Devices surged more than 16% in extended trading after beating first-quarter estimates and issuing an upbeat outlook. Super Micro Computer jumped 18% on strong profit guidance.

Looking ahead, Trading Economics models put the index at 7,131.53 by end of quarter and 6,647.37 in 12 months — both below current levels. Investors will also be watching earnings from AppLovin, Walt Disney, Uber, CVS Health, and DoorDash, along with ADP's April private payrolls report.

Gobble's Take: A 10% monthly surge to all-time highs driven by geopolitical relief and blowout earnings is exactly the kind of setup that rewards investors who stayed in and punishes those who didn't.

Source: Trading Economics

In Case You Missed It

Yesterday's top stories:

• Pharma Giant Daiichi Sankyo Delays Earnings, Stock Tanks 4%—Is This a Red Flag or Buy Signal?
• Mondi Q1 EBITDA Flatlines at €400M—Stock Dips 2%, But Packaging Demand Hints at Turnaround
• SLM Corp Swings Wild: Down 10% This Week, Now Trading at 9x Earnings—Value Trap or Student Loan Goldmine?