Taiwan's defense bill: more than the opposition wanted, less than the government asked for

Taiwan's defense bill: more than the opposition wanted, less than the government asked for

Taiwan's parliament approved a $25 billion special defense budget bill after months of political wrangling over the financial burden and the types of weapons needed. The final number beat the $12.1 billion proposed by the opposition — but fell well short of the $40 billion package the government had requested.

Gobble's Take: A number that's too big for one side and too small for the other is basically the definition of a compromise. Everyone gets to be right about being disappointed. Source: Geopolitics Weekly Report-71

The U.S.-China summit: all pageantry, thin on payoff

For the first time in nine years, a U.S. president visited China — and the two sides couldn't even agree on what they talked about. Washington stressed trade, fentanyl, and Iran; Beijing stressed Taiwan, bilateral stability, and Trump's kind words about Xi Jinping. On Iran specifically, Beijing said the parties "exchanged views" on major international issues, while the White House declared that the Strait of Hormuz must stay open and Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons. The economic results of the Trump-Xi meeting fell far short of expectations.

Gobble's Take: Two sides, one summit, two completely different press releases. The optics said breakthrough. The readouts said otherwise. Source: Geopolitics Weekly Report-71

Geopolitical risk keeps the world economy on edge

Geopolitical risks — from elections and polarisation to conflicts within and between states — have inevitable knock-on effects on the global economy. The war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East, and Houthi missile attacks on Red Sea shipping all illustrate how fast geopolitics can shape economic outcomes. The result: higher inflation, lower growth, and significant welfare losses when tensions run hot.

Gobble's Take: Every cycle, markets insist they've priced in the geopolitics. Every cycle, the geopolitics disagrees. Source: Economics Observatory

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